A long and timely article in the New York Times in recent days has taken stock of the situation regarding the upcoming Tokyo Olympics, particularly questioning the conditions on the sidelines and the reasonableness or otherwise of holding them anyway.
The warning factors are different:
- In late March, Japan faced the 4th wave of the virus, and major cities (including Tokyo) declared a state of emergency
- Currently only 15 percent of the population has received a first dose of vaccine, as a result of a vaccination campaign described as “embarrassingly slow”
The pros and cons of the Olympics have reasons to spend on both sides of the argument. Let’s see what they are.
Who is against
Athletes coming to Japan-and we’re talking tens of thousands-don’t have to prove they are vaccinated. Beyond the inconsistency of barring entry to any foreigner for a long time, making vaccination optional creates bafflement and disappointment.
The organization of the Games also relies on the work of 80,000 volunteers, 10,000 of whom have already withdrawn citing lack of health security as the main cause.
Foreign audiences will not be able to watch the Games live, while local audiences will have access to some 40 venues designated for the holding of the competitions. Safety in these situations rests with individuals and their compliance with Covid’s anti-broadcast regulations, which of course also apply to athletes during their travels and activities.
Finally, it is estimated that a presence of at least 10,000 doctors and paramedics is needed, but the Tokyo-based association that gathers them (and has 6,000) says that they are largely already exhausted from the work they did during the pandemic and raise the doubt that they cannot sustain care even during the Games.
And who is in favor
The reasons in favor of the Olympics at any cost are more based on economic factors, assessments regarding the work of athletes, and a calculation of risk containment.
Economic: cancellation would result in a bloodbath for the organization, sponsors, and national federations, in addition to the fact that 73 percent of revenues from these types of events come from television rights, which would be completely lacking.
Athletics: to participate in the Olympics, athletes prepare for 3 years and 11 months. The cancellation of an edition would double this time frame for a great many of them to nearly 8 years, that is, the entire span of their active lives, that is, that interval during which their performance is at its peak. Many careers, in other words, would be compromised if not wiped out.
The risk is controllable: cases of infection have decreased considerably since the last peak, and the rate of vaccination-which at the beginning of the campaign was about 37,000 doses per day-is now one million per day. Public support seems to be growing and at a rapid pace.
How will it turn out?
With five weeks to go before the Games begin, it seems that nothing can stop the organizational machine. After all, a system as complex as the Olympics has the maneuverability of a million-ton freighter (which, for the record, does not exist: the maximum is 24,000 tons), and getting it to change course or stop is impossible.
All that remains is to hope for everyone’s cooperation and goodwill and a good dose of luck, which never hurts.